Estoril vs Moreirense: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
The Footlab AI model makes Estoril the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Moreirense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Estoril wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estoril vs Moreirense?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Estoril (2,061) and Moreirense (2,114).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estoril vs Moreirense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estoril
4-2-3-1- 14Y. Begraoui
- 12João Carvalho
- 10J. Holsgrove
- 44M. Robin
- 11N. Omerović
- 98Fabrício Garcia
- 2Ricard Sánchez
- 15Isma Sierra
- 4Ferro
- 21R. Jurišić
- 1Joel Robles
Moreirense
4-2-3-1- 79L. Vonić
- 23N. John
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 65Guilherme Liberato
- 10Kiko Bondoso
- 19Tiago Andrade
- 66Gilberto Batista
- 27Kiko
- 26Maracás
- 76Dinis Pinto
- 13André Ferreira
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estoril have 0 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats; Moreirense have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 4, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Estoril wins, 3 draws, 3 Moreirense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | Moreirense 1-0 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Estoril 3-3 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| May 11, 2025 | Moreirense 2-2 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Estoril 2-2 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| May 18, 2024 | Moreirense 2-1 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Estoril 1-3 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Moreirense vs Estoril on Apr 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Estoril score 0.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Moreirense score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Moreirense | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estoril sit 18th in Primeira Liga (2 points from 7 matches) and Moreirense sit 12th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 8 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
A question about Estoril vs Moreirense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Moreirense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estoril the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Moreirense.
- Where and when is Estoril vs Moreirense played?
- Estoril vs Moreirense is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.