Azam vs Mbeya City: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Azam Complex Stadium, Mbagala
The Footlab AI model makes Azam the favourite at 79%, against 16% for a draw and 5% for Mbeya City. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,455 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Azam vs Mbeya City?
Azam is a heavy favourite: 1,851 Elo points against 1,527, a 324-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Azam vs Mbeya City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Azam
4-3-3- 19G. Sillah
- 11Naldo
- 20H. Molia
- 23H. Mao
- 6F. Salum
- 4Donovan Stephane Makoma
- 5L. Mwaikenda
- 2N. Idumba
- 12P. Msindo
- 13T. Abdulrafiu
- 28A. Manula
Mbeya City
4-3-3- 10E. Ambokile
- 49O. Mwajanga
- 22V. Mayanga
- 21J. Mwanuke
- 20H. Haji
- 32O. Abdallah
- 26A. Buha
- 14Nassor Mbarouk
- 5Y. Seleman Mbegu
- 4K. Pillar
- 31T. Reuben
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 08:14 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Azam have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Mbeya City have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Coastal Union(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Namungo(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(home) | 1-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(away) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Tabora United(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Fountain Gate(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Azam wins, 2 draws, 1 Mbeya City win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | Mbeya City 0-0 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Azam 2-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 31, 2022 | Azam 6-1 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2022 | Mbeya City 0-1 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 10, 2022 | Mbeya City 2-1 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 18, 2021 | Azam 2-2 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
How many goals should we expect?
Azam score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mbeya City score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azam | 1.7 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Mbeya City | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Azam sit 3rd in Ligi kuu Bara (17 points from 8 matches) and Mbeya City sit 8th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Azam | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 17 |
| 8 | Mbeya City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
A question about Azam vs Mbeya City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Azam vs Mbeya City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Azam the favourite at 79%, against 16% for a draw and 5% for Mbeya City.
- Where and when is Azam vs Mbeya City played?
- Azam vs Mbeya City is played on October 28, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Azam Complex Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.