Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Mkwakwani Stadium, Tanga
The Footlab AI model makes Coastal Union the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Coastal Union wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,876 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar?
Coastal Union starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,615 vs 1,508).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Coastal Union
4-3-3- 9M. M. Maabad
- 69N. Mussa
- 25S. Kichuya
- 16G. Manyasi
- 13K. Gradi
- 34S. Mwanza
- 26R. Aidan
- 5A. A. Msangi
- 4A. Laurent
- 59Adam Arafat
- 18C. Ramadhani
Kagera Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Kagera Sugar lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 10:14 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Coastal Union have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Kagera Sugar have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 12, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(away) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 3-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fountain Gate(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Mashujaa(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Coastal Union wins, 1 draw, 1 Kagera Sugar win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | Kagera Sugar 2-1 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Coastal Union 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 21, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 1-2 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Coastal Union 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Kagera Sugar 0-0 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 3, 2022 | Coastal Union 2-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Kagera Sugar vs Coastal Union on Apr 3, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Coastal Union score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Kagera Sugar score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Union | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Kagera Sugar | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Coastal Union sit 10th in Ligi kuu Bara (10 points from 8 matches) and Kagera Sugar sit 14th (6 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Coastal Union | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| 14 | Kagera Sugar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 6 |
A question about Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Coastal Union the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar played?
- Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar is played on October 28, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Mkwakwani Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.