Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Mkwakwani Stadium, Tanga
The Footlab model makes Coastal Union the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Coastal Union (1,541) and Kagera Sugar (1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Coastal Union have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Kagera Sugar have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Young Africans(away) | 1-4 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Coastal Union win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Kagera Sugar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | Kagera Sugar 2-1 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Coastal Union 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 21, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 1-2 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Coastal Union 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Kagera Sugar 0-0 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 3, 2022 | Coastal Union 2-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Kagera Sugar vs Coastal Union on Apr 3, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Coastal Union score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kagera Sugar score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Union | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Kagera Sugar | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Coastal Union sit 16th in Ligi kuu Bara (0 points from 2 matches) and Kagera Sugar sit 14th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kagera Sugar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| 16 | Coastal Union | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar?
- The Footlab model makes Coastal Union the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar played?
- Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar is played on October 28, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Mkwakwani Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.