Cacereño vs Barakaldo: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Príncipe Felipe, Cáceres
The Footlab model makes Cacereño the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Barakaldo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cacereño vs Barakaldo?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Cacereño (1,923) and Barakaldo (1,958).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cacereño have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Barakaldo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | CF Talavera(home) | 1-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Zamora(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 4-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Tenerife(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Cacereño win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Barakaldo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Cacereño 0-0 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Barakaldo 1-1 Cacereño | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Cacereño score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Barakaldo score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cacereño | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Barakaldo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cacereño sit 15th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (44 points from 38 matches) and Barakaldo sit 7th (58 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Barakaldo | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 51 | 38 | 58 |
| 15 | Cacereño | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 42 | 49 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cacereño vs Barakaldo?
- The Footlab model makes Cacereño the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Barakaldo.
- Where and when is Cacereño vs Barakaldo played?
- Cacereño vs Barakaldo is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Príncipe Felipe, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.