Pontevedra vs UD Ourense: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Pasarón, Pontevedra
The Footlab model makes Pontevedra the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for UD Ourense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Pontevedra (1,986) and UD Ourense (1,976).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontevedra have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; UD Ourense have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Coruxo(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ourense CF(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estradense(away) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruña II(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Conquense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 24, 2026 | Conquense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Reddis(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 9, 2026 | Reddis(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Pontevedra win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 UD Ourense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | UD Ourense 1-1 Pontevedra | Copa del Rey |
Last archived meeting: UD Ourense vs Pontevedra on Oct 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Pontevedra score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; UD Ourense score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontevedra | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| UD Ourense | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pontevedra | 38 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 49 | 31 | 58 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?
- The Footlab model makes Pontevedra the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for UD Ourense.
- Where and when is Pontevedra vs UD Ourense played?
- Pontevedra vs UD Ourense is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.