Pontevedra vs UD Ourense: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Pasarón, Pontevedra
The Footlab AI model makes Pontevedra the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for UD Ourense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pontevedra wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,987 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Pontevedra (1,973) and UD Ourense (1,925).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pontevedra vs UD Ourense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pontevedra
4-3-3- 22A. Comparada Gonzalez
- 11Iñaki Elejalde
- 9D. Mba
- 10Y. Pino
- 14L. Macias
- 6I. Ivorra
- 16A. Vidorreta
- 5A. Perez
- 20Rui Ferreira
- 15D. Alba
- 1Raúl Marqueta
UD Ourense
4-3-3- 10David Ferreiro
- 11Sergi Baldrich
- 17Xabi Dominguez
- 14R. Martinez
- 22D. Tejon
- 16Álvaro Bastida
- 4J. Labrada
- 3Julio Cabrera
- 5L. Fernandez
- 2Varo
- 1Manuel Vizoso
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 08:08 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontevedra have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; UD Ourense have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 1-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ponferradina(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | UD Logroñés(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 0-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Barakaldo(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Real Unión(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 1-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Pontevedra wins, 1 draw, 0 UD Ourense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | UD Ourense 1-1 Pontevedra | Copa del Rey |
Last archived meeting: UD Ourense vs Pontevedra on Oct 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Pontevedra score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; UD Ourense score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontevedra | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| UD Ourense | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pontevedra sit 11th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (11 points from 8 matches) and UD Ourense sit 19th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pontevedra | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 5 |
A question about Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pontevedra the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for UD Ourense.
- Where and when is Pontevedra vs UD Ourense played?
- Pontevedra vs UD Ourense is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.