Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Workers' Stadium, Beijing
The Footlab model makes Beijing Guoan the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Qingdao Youth Island. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Beijing Guoan (1,735) and Qingdao Youth Island (1,668).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Beijing Guoan have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Qingdao Youth Island have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Yunnan Yukun(home) | 3-3 | Super League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Shanghai Shenhua(away) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tianjin Teda(away) | 4-2 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sichuan Jiuniu(home) | 4-0 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hangzhou Greentown(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shandong Luneng(home) | 2-0 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chongqing Tongliang Long(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Henan Jianye(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Qingdao Jonoon(home) | 2-0 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Shenyang Urban(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Beijing Guoan win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Qingdao Youth Island win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Beijing Guoan | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Qingdao Youth Island 1-3 Beijing Guoan | Super League |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Qingdao Youth Island 2-2 Beijing Guoan | FA Cup |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Beijing Guoan 1-0 Qingdao Youth Island | Super League |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Qingdao Youth Island 2-2 Beijing Guoan | Super League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Beijing Guoan 4-1 Qingdao Youth Island | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan on May 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Beijing Guoan score 2.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Qingdao Youth Island score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Guoan | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Qingdao Youth Island | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Beijing Guoan sit 10th in Super League (15 points from 15 matches) and Qingdao Youth Island sit 6th (18 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 32 | 36 |
| 3 | Qingdao Youth Island | 24 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 28 | 29 | 36 |
| 6 | Qingdao Youth Island | 15 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 18 |
| 10 | Beijing Guoan | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
- The Footlab model makes Beijing Guoan the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Qingdao Youth Island.
- Where and when is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island played?
- Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island is played on October 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Workers' Stadium, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 16, 2026Henan JianyevsTianjin Teda
- Oct 17, 2026Dalian ZhixingvsSichuan Jiuniu
- Oct 17, 2026Qingdao JonoonvsShenyang Urban
- Oct 17, 2026Yunnan YukunvsChongqing Tongliang Long
- Oct 17, 2026Shandong LunengvsHangzhou Greentown
- Oct 18, 2026Wuhan Three TownsvsShanghai Shenhua
- Oct 18, 2026SHANGHAI SIPGvsChengdu Better City