Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:35 AM (UTC)Yuxi plateau Sports Center Stadium, Yuxi
The Footlab model makes Yunnan Yukun the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Chongqing Tongliang Long. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Yunnan Yukun (1,615) and Chongqing Tongliang Long (1,535).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Yunnan Yukun have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Chongqing Tongliang Long have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Beijing Guoan(away) | 3-3 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dalian Zhixing(home) | 3-1 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chengdu Better City(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tianjin Teda(away) | 2-3 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sichuan Jiuniu(home) | 4-3 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dalian Zhixing(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Qingdao Youth Island(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SHANGHAI SIPG(home) | 2-3 | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sichuan Jiuniu(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Wuhan Three Towns(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Yunnan Yukun win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Chongqing Tongliang Long win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-0 Yunnan Yukun | Super League |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 3-2 Yunnan Yukun | League One |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Yunnan Yukun 1-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long | League One |
| Jul 2, 2023 | Yunnan Yukun 0-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long | League Two |
| May 6, 2023 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 Yunnan Yukun | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun on May 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Yunnan Yukun score 2.2 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Chongqing Tongliang Long score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yunnan Yukun | 2.2 | 2.0 | 3 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | 0.9 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Yunnan Yukun sit 4th in Super League (21 points from 15 matches) and Chongqing Tongliang Long sit 2nd (24 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 24 | 21 |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 45 | 35 |
| 7 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
- The Footlab model makes Yunnan Yukun the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Chongqing Tongliang Long.
- Where and when is Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long played?
- Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:35 AM (UTC) at Yuxi plateau Sports Center Stadium, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 16, 2026Henan JianyevsTianjin Teda
- Oct 17, 2026Dalian ZhixingvsSichuan Jiuniu
- Oct 17, 2026Qingdao JonoonvsShenyang Urban
- Oct 17, 2026Shandong LunengvsHangzhou Greentown
- Oct 18, 2026Wuhan Three TownsvsShanghai Shenhua
- Oct 18, 2026Beijing GuoanvsQingdao Youth Island
- Oct 18, 2026SHANGHAI SIPGvsChengdu Better City