Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Ji'nan
The Footlab model makes Shandong Luneng the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Hangzhou Greentown. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Shandong Luneng (1,666) and Hangzhou Greentown (1,587).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shandong Luneng have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Hangzhou Greentown have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Qingdao Youth Island(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Qingdao Jonoon(home) | 3-1 | Super League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tianjin Teda(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | SHANGHAI SIPG(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Henan Jianye(home) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sichuan Jiuniu(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chengdu Better City(home) | 2-3 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Beijing Guoan(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Dalian Zhixing(home) | 3-2 | Super League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Chongqing Tongliang Long(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Shandong Luneng win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Hangzhou Greentown win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Hangzhou Greentown 4-1 Shandong Luneng | Super League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Hangzhou Greentown 2-2 Shandong Luneng | Super League |
| May 10, 2025 | Shandong Luneng 4-2 Hangzhou Greentown | Super League |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Hangzhou Greentown 3-3 Shandong Luneng | Super League |
| May 25, 2024 | Shandong Luneng 3-0 Hangzhou Greentown | Super League |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 Shandong Luneng | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng on May 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shandong Luneng score 2.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Hangzhou Greentown score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Luneng | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Hangzhou Greentown | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1 | 13/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shandong Luneng sit 5th in Super League (18 points from 15 matches) and Hangzhou Greentown sit 7th (17 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shandong Luneng | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 18 |
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 33 |
| 7 | Hangzhou Greentown | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 17 |
| 11 | Hangzhou Greentown | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 34 | 40 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
- The Footlab model makes Shandong Luneng the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Hangzhou Greentown.
- Where and when is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown played?
- Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 16, 2026Henan JianyevsTianjin Teda
- Oct 17, 2026Dalian ZhixingvsSichuan Jiuniu
- Oct 17, 2026Yunnan YukunvsChongqing Tongliang Long
- Oct 17, 2026Qingdao JonoonvsShenyang Urban
- Oct 18, 2026Wuhan Three TownsvsShanghai Shenhua
- Oct 18, 2026Beijing GuoanvsQingdao Youth Island
- Oct 18, 2026SHANGHAI SIPGvsChengdu Better City