Beira-Mar vs União Lamas: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Aveiro, Aveiro
The Footlab model makes Beira-Mar the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for União Lamas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Beira-Mar vs União Lamas?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Beira-Mar (1,862) and União Lamas (1,777).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Beira-Mar have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; União Lamas have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Machico(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Gouveia(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | União Lamas(home) | 4-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ovarense(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Florgrade(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sousense(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Beira-Mar win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 União Lamas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Beira-Mar 4-0 União Lamas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Dec 14, 2025 | União Lamas 2-1 Beira-Mar | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Mar 9, 2025 | União Lamas 0-2 Beira-Mar | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Beira-Mar 0-0 União Lamas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Beira-Mar vs União Lamas on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Beira-Mar score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; União Lamas score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beira-Mar | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| União Lamas | 0.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Beira-Mar vs União Lamas?
- The Footlab model makes Beira-Mar the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for União Lamas.
- Where and when is Beira-Mar vs União Lamas played?
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas is played on August 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Aveiro, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.