Machico vs Camacha: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Machico, Machico (Madeira)
The Footlab model makes Machico the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Camacha. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machico vs Camacha?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Machico (1,782) and Camacha (1,794).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machico have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Camacha have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Beira-Mar(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ribeira Brava(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Celoricense(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Vilaverdense(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Salgueiros(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Celoricense(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Vilaverdense(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Machico win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Camacha win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Camacha 2-1 Machico | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Machico 0-0 Camacha | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Machico 1-1 Camacha | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Camacha 0-0 Machico | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Feb 5, 2023 | Camacha 1-1 Machico | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Machico 0-1 Camacha | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Machico score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Camacha score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machico | 1.1 | 0.7 | 10 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Camacha | 1.3 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machico vs Camacha?
- The Footlab model makes Machico the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Camacha.
- Where and when is Machico vs Camacha played?
- Machico vs Camacha is played on August 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Machico, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.