Varzim vs Trofense: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Varzim Sport Club, Póvoa de Varzim
The Footlab model makes Varzim the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Trofense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varzim vs Trofense?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Varzim (1,948) and Trofense (1,859).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varzim have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Trofense have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(away) | 4-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tirsense(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vianense(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | AVS(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Academica(away) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Varzim win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Trofense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Trofense 0-1 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Trofense 0-1 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Varzim 2-0 Trofense | Liga 3 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Varzim 0-1 Trofense | Liga 3 |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Trofense 2-1 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Trofense 5-1 Varzim | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Varzim score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Trofense score 0.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varzim | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Trofense | 0.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varzim vs Trofense?
- The Footlab model makes Varzim the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Trofense.
- Where and when is Varzim vs Trofense played?
- Varzim vs Trofense is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Varzim Sport Club, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.