Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Liberdade, Montijo
The Footlab model makes Atlético CP the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Olímpico do Montijo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP?
Atlético CP starts as the favourite with a 278-point Elo edge (1,931 vs 1,653).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Olímpico do Montijo have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Atlético CP have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2025 | Charneca Caparica(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Mafra(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Bragança(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 21, 2021 | Diocesano(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 11, 2021 | Oriental Lisboa(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 3-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mafra(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Olímpico do Montijo score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético CP score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olímpico do Montijo | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Atlético CP | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético CP the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Olímpico do Montijo.
- Where and when is Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP played?
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Liberdade, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.