Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Estádio Carlos Osório, Oliveira de Azeméis
The Footlab model makes Oliveirense the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Penalva Castelo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Oliveirense (1,799) and Penalva Castelo (1,754).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oliveirense have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Penalva Castelo have 0, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 3-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| May 17, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-5 | Segunda Liga |
| May 9, 2026 | Feirense(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2018 | Anadia(away) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 25, 2016 | Amarante(home) | 0-4 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol(home) | 4-4 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Oliveirense score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Penalva Castelo score 1.7 and concede 3.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliveirense | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Penalva Castelo | 1.7 | 3.7 | 0 | 2/3 | 3/3 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo?
- The Footlab model makes Oliveirense the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Penalva Castelo.
- Where and when is Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo played?
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo is played on August 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Estádio Carlos Osório, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.