Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Paços de Ferreira
The Footlab model makes Fafe the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Pacos Ferreira. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe?
Fafe starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,941 vs 1,811).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pacos Ferreira have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Fafe have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 1-4 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Paredes(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AD Marco 09(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | AVS(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 3-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Maria da Fonte(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Pacos Ferreira win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Fafe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2025 | Fafe 1-1 Pacos Ferreira | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Fafe vs Pacos Ferreira on Aug 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Pacos Ferreira score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Fafe score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Fafe | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe?
- The Footlab model makes Fafe the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Pacos Ferreira.
- Where and when is Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe played?
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe is played on August 29, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.