Atlético Malveira vs Mafra: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio das Seixas, Malveira, Mafra
The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Atlético Malveira. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlético Malveira vs Mafra?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Atlético Malveira (1,822) and Mafra (1,919).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Malveira have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Mafra have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 0-5 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| May 31, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 23, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Louletano(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 5-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | FC Fredericia(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Atlético Malveira score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Mafra score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Malveira | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Mafra | 1.7 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlético Malveira vs Mafra?
- The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Atlético Malveira.
- Where and when is Atlético Malveira vs Mafra played?
- Atlético Malveira vs Mafra is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio das Seixas, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.