Belarus vs Albania: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Natsional'nyy Futbol'nyy Stadion, Minsk
The Footlab model makes Belarus the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Albania. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belarus vs Albania?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Belarus (1,422) and Albania (1,512).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belarus have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Albania have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Burkina Faso(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Syria(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Armenia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Cyprus(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Greece(home) | 0-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Luxembourg(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Israel(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Ukraine(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Poland(away) | 1-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 16, 2025 | England(home) | 0-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Belarus win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Albania win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2020 | Albania 3-2 Belarus | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 4, 2020 | Belarus 0-2 Albania | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Belarus score 1.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Albania score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belarus | 1.7 | 1.8 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Albania | 0.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belarus vs Albania?
- The Footlab model makes Belarus the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Albania.
- Where and when is Belarus vs Albania played?
- Belarus vs Albania is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Natsional'nyy Futbol'nyy Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.