Iceland vs Luxembourg: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 16, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia
The Footlab AI model makes Iceland the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Luxembourg. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.4% of the 3,641 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Iceland vs Luxembourg?
Iceland starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,492 vs 1,371).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Iceland vs Luxembourg
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Iceland
4-2-3-1- 9O. Óskarsson
- 8Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
- 7H. Haraldsson
- 22A. Guðjohnsen
- 18M. Anderson
- 10G. Sigurðsson
- 3D. Grétarsson
- 4V. Pálsson
- 16S. Þórðarson
- 23H. Magnússon
- 12H. Valdimarsson
Luxembourg
4-2-3-1- 9Jayson Videira Pereira
- 11V. Thill
- 6J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
- 17H. Kadamani
- 8E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos
- 15Omar Natami
- 13D. Carlson
- 4F. Bohnert
- 5V. Selimović
- 3E. Mahmutović
- 1A. Moris
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 06:26 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iceland have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Luxembourg have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Estonia(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bulgaria(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Luxembourg(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Estonia(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Bulgaria(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Estonia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Iceland(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bulgaria(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albania(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Iceland win, 1 draw, 1 Luxembourg win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 13, 2023 | Iceland 1-1 Luxembourg | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Sep 8, 2023 | Luxembourg 3-1 Iceland | Euro Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Luxembourg vs Iceland on Sep 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Iceland score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Luxembourg score 0.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Luxembourg | 0.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 2/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Iceland sit 1st in UEFA Nations League (8 points from 4 matches) and Luxembourg sit 4th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
A question about Iceland vs Luxembourg?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Iceland vs Luxembourg?
- The Footlab AI model makes Iceland the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Luxembourg.
- Where and when is Iceland vs Luxembourg played?
- Iceland vs Luxembourg is played on November 16, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.