Latvia vs Armenia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadions Skonto, Riga
The Footlab model makes Latvia the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Armenia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Latvia vs Armenia?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Latvia (1,310) and Armenia (1,346).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Latvia have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Armenia have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 0-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Lithuania(away) | 1-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Gibraltar(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Gibraltar(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Serbia(away) | 1-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Moldova(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Belarus(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Portugal(away) | 1-9 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Hungary(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Latvia win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Armenia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | Latvia 1-2 Armenia | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Armenia 4-1 Latvia | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 12, 2023 | Latvia 2-0 Armenia | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Jun 19, 2023 | Armenia 2-1 Latvia | Euro Championship - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Latvia score 0.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Armenia score 0.9 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | 0.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Armenia | 0.9 | 2.7 | 0 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Latvia vs Armenia?
- The Footlab model makes Latvia the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Armenia.
- Where and when is Latvia vs Armenia played?
- Latvia vs Armenia is played on November 15, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadions Skonto, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.