Estonia vs Bulgaria: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 16, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
The Footlab AI model makes Estonia the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Bulgaria. The most likely score is 1-1. If Estonia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,905 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estonia vs Bulgaria?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Estonia (1,370) and Bulgaria (1,417).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estonia vs Bulgaria
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estonia
5-3-2- 14P. Kristal
- 17M. Männilaan
- 20M. Poom
- 10K. Palumets
- 4M. Käit
- 3M. Paskotši
- 2M. Kuusk
- 6R. Peetson
- 19M. Schjønning-Larsen
- 18K. Mets
- 12M. Igonen
Bulgaria
4-2-3-1- 9A. Iliev
- 4I. Gruev
- 11G. Rusev
- 8A. Kraev
- 20L. Petkov
- 14A. Chandarov
- 13S. Velkov
- 21D. Velkovski
- 19I. Turitsov
- 5K. Dimitrov
- 1D. Naumov
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 05:59 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estonia have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Bulgaria have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Iceland(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Luxembourg(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Bulgaria(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Iceland(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania(home) | 1-0 | Baltic Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Luxembourg(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Iceland(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Estonia(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Luxembourg(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Moldova(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Estonia wins, 1 draw, 0 Bulgaria wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Estonia score 0.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bulgaria score 1.3 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Bulgaria | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estonia sit 2nd in UEFA Nations League (6 points from 4 matches) and Bulgaria sit 3rd (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
A question about Estonia vs Bulgaria?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estonia vs Bulgaria?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estonia the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Bulgaria.
- Where and when is Estonia vs Bulgaria played?
- Estonia vs Bulgaria is played on November 16, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at A. Le Coq Arena, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.