Faroe Islands vs Moldova: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Tórsvøllur, Tórshavn, Streymoy
The Footlab model makes Faroe Islands the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Moldova. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Faroe Islands vs Moldova?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Faroe Islands (1,345) and Moldova (1,290).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Faroe Islands have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Moldova have 0, 4 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Latvia(away) | 1-0 | Baltic Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Estonia(away) | 0-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Mar 28, 2026 | San Marino(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Kazakhstan(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Croatia(away) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Armenia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bulgaria(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cyprus(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Lithuania(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Israel(away) | 1-4 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Faroe Islands win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Moldova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2023 | Faroe Islands 0-1 Moldova | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 24, 2023 | Moldova 1-1 Faroe Islands | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Sep 7, 2021 | Faroe Islands 2-1 Moldova | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 25, 2021 | Moldova 1-1 Faroe Islands | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Last archived meeting: Faroe Islands vs Moldova on Sep 10, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Faroe Islands score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Moldova score 0.8 and concede 3.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faroe Islands | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Moldova | 0.8 | 3.0 | 0 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Faroe Islands vs Moldova?
- The Footlab model makes Faroe Islands the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Moldova.
- Where and when is Faroe Islands vs Moldova played?
- Faroe Islands vs Moldova is played on November 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Tórsvøllur, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.