Belgium U21 vs Wales U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 20Kick-off on September 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee
The Footlab model makes Belgium U21 the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Wales U21. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belgium U21 vs Wales U21?
Belgium U21 starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,618 vs 1,477).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belgium U21 have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Wales U21 have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Netherlands U21(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Austria U21(home) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Austria U21(away) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Denmark U21(home) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Wales U21(away) | 7-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Denmark U21(away) | 0-4 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Belarus U21(home) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Belarus U21(away) | 0-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Austria U21(away) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Belgium U21(home) | 0-7 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Belgium U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Wales U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2025 | Wales U21 0-7 Belgium U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 9, 2020 | Belgium U21 5-0 Wales U21 | UEFA U21 Championship |
| Sep 6, 2019 | Wales U21 1-0 Belgium U21 | UEFA U21 Championship |
Last archived meeting: Wales U21 vs Belgium U21 on Oct 10, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Belgium U21 score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Wales U21 score 1.3 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium U21 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Wales U21 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Belgium U21 sit 1st in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (10 points from 5 matches) and Wales U21 sit 4th (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Wales U21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belgium U21 vs Wales U21?
- The Footlab model makes Belgium U21 the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Wales U21.
- Where and when is Belgium U21 vs Wales U21 played?
- Belgium U21 vs Wales U21 is played on September 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 28, 2026Denmark U21vsBelarus U21
- Sep 29, 2026Estonia U21vsFrance U21
- Sep 29, 2026Iceland U21vsSwitzerland U21
- Sep 29, 2026Norway U21vsBosnia-Herzegovina U21
- Sep 29, 2026Republic of Ireland U21vsKazakhstan U21
- Sep 29, 2026Slovenia U21vsIsrael U21
- Sep 30, 2026Czechia U21vsBulgaria U21
- Sep 30, 2026Faroe Islands U21vsLuxembourg U21