Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 8Kick-off on January 28, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for AZ Alkmaar. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,718 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar?
Benfica starts as the favourite with a 284-point Elo edge (2,416 vs 2,132).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 22J. Durán
- 36João Palhinha
- 25G. Prestianni
- 10H. Sudakov
- 8F. Aursnes
- 11D. Lukebakio
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 2C. Lenglet
- 1A. Trubin
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 18B. Kovacs
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 24A. Oufkir
- 21D. Kwakman
- 17V. Byskov
- 3W. Goes
- 29W. Hoedt
- 34M. de Wit
- 2S. Maikuma
- 28J. De Busser
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 09:48 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat; AZ Alkmaar have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Hapoel Beer Sheva(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica score 3.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; AZ Alkmaar score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica sit 3rd in UEFA Europa League (6 points from 2 matches) and AZ Alkmaar sit 20th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
A question about Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for AZ Alkmaar.
- Where and when is Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar played?
- Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar is played on January 28, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.