BFA vs Minija: prediction and stats
1 LygaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)BFA Maniežas, Vilnius
The Footlab model makes Minija the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for BFA. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win BFA vs Minija?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate BFA (1,408) and Minija (1,494).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, BFA have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Minija have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Neptūną Klaipėda(home) | 2-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dainava(away) | 0-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Transinvest 2(home) | 4-2 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FA Šiauliai II(away) | 0-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Be1 NFA(home) | 3-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ekranas(away) | 5-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Be1 NFA(home) | 3-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Hegelmann II(away) | 4-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Žalgiris II(away) | 0-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Jonava(home) | 2-1 | 1 Lyga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 BFA win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Minija win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Minija 3-0 BFA | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Minija 1-1 BFA | 1 Lyga |
| May 3, 2025 | BFA 1-0 Minija | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 17, 2024 | BFA 1-1 Minija | 1 Lyga |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Minija 0-1 BFA | 1 Lyga |
| Oct 28, 2023 | BFA 2-0 Minija | 1 Lyga |
How many goals should we expect?
BFA score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Minija score 2.2 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFA | 1.6 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Minija | 2.2 | 0.5 | 7 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
BFA sit 7th in 1 Lyga (35 points from 21 matches) and Minija sit 1st (52 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minija | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 11 | 52 |
| 7 | BFA | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 29 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for BFA vs Minija?
- The Footlab model makes Minija the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for BFA.
- Where and when is BFA vs Minija played?
- BFA vs Minija is played on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at BFA Maniežas, in the 1 Lyga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.