Ogre United vs Auda: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, Ogre
The Footlab model makes Auda the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Ogre United. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ogre United vs Auda?
Auda is a heavy favourite: 1,774 Elo points against 1,448 — a 326-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ogre United have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Auda have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 1-3 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-4 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Grobiņa(away) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-4 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 3-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-2 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Ogre United win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Auda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Auda 2-0 Ogre United | Virsliga |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Ogre United 1-1 Auda | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Ogre United score 1.1 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Auda score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ogre United | 1.1 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Auda | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ogre United sit 10th in Virsliga (14 points from 26 matches) and Auda sit 3rd (49 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Auda | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 26 | 49 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 68 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ogre United vs Auda?
- The Footlab model makes Auda the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Ogre United.
- Where and when is Ogre United vs Auda played?
- Ogre United vs Auda is played on October 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.