Blackburn vs Millwall: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ewood Park, Blackburn, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Millwall the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Blackburn. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Blackburn vs Millwall?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Blackburn (1,858) and Millwall (1,942).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Blackburn have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Millwall have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Strasbourg(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Antwerp(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bromley(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Blackburn win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Millwall win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Millwall 1-2 Blackburn | Championship |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Blackburn 2-0 Millwall | Championship |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Blackburn 4-1 Millwall | Championship |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Millwall 1-0 Blackburn | Championship |
| Mar 5, 2024 | Blackburn 1-1 Millwall | Championship |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Millwall 1-2 Blackburn | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Millwall vs Blackburn on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Blackburn score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Millwall score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Millwall | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Blackburn sit 9th in Championship (1 points from 1 matches) and Millwall sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Blackburn vs Millwall?
- The Footlab model makes Millwall the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Blackburn.
- Where and when is Blackburn vs Millwall played?
- Blackburn vs Millwall is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ewood Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.