Middlesbrough vs Norwich: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
The Footlab model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Norwich. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Norwich?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Middlesbrough (1,931) and Norwich (1,913).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Middlesbrough have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Norwich have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Cambridge United(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Middlesbrough win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Norwich win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Middlesbrough 1-0 Norwich | Championship |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Norwich 1-2 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Middlesbrough 0-0 Norwich | Championship |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Norwich 3-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Mar 6, 2024 | Middlesbrough 3-1 Norwich | Championship |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Norwich 1-2 Middlesbrough | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Middlesbrough vs Norwich on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Middlesbrough score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Norwich score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 1.4 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Norwich | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Middlesbrough sit 4th in Championship (3 points from 1 matches) and Norwich sit 18th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Middlesbrough vs Norwich?
- The Footlab model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Norwich.
- Where and when is Middlesbrough vs Norwich played?
- Middlesbrough vs Norwich is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Riverside Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.