Bolton vs Cardiff: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Bolton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bolton vs Cardiff?
Cardiff starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (2,038 vs 1,902).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bolton have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Cardiff have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Preston(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NAC Breda(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Everton(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Cork City(away) | 6-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bolton win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Cardiff win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Cardiff 2-0 Bolton | League One |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Bolton 1-0 Cardiff | League One |
| Feb 13, 2018 | Cardiff 2-0 Bolton | Championship |
| Dec 23, 2017 | Bolton 2-0 Cardiff | Championship |
| Apr 23, 2016 | Cardiff 2-1 Bolton | Championship |
| Dec 5, 2015 | Bolton 2-3 Cardiff | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Bolton score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff score 2.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Cardiff | 2.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bolton sit 3rd in Championship (3 points from 1 matches) and Cardiff sit 13th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Cardiff | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bolton vs Cardiff?
- The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Bolton.
- Where and when is Bolton vs Cardiff played?
- Bolton vs Cardiff is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Toughsheet Community Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.