Where and when is Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 played?

Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on January 9, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

FSV Mainz 05

The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 48%, against 22% for a draw and 30% for FSV Mainz 05. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05?

Borussia Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (2,290 vs 2,155).

Borussia Dortmund win48 %

Draw22 %

FSV Mainz 05 win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Borussia Dortmund have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Borussia Dortmund
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bayern München(home)	1-2	Super Cup
Aug 15, 2026	AS Roma(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Arsenal(away)	3-2	Emirates Cup
Aug 1, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Krieschow(away)	9-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Borussia Dortmund win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 FSV Mainz 05 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 13, 2026	Borussia Dortmund 4-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Sep 27, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 0-2 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Mar 30, 2025	Borussia Dortmund 3-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Nov 9, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 3-1 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
May 11, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 3-0 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Dec 19, 2023	Borussia Dortmund 1-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 on Feb 13, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Borussia Dortmund score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Borussia Dortmund	1.7	1.2	4	8/15	9/15
FSV Mainz 05	3.0	1.3	6	7/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd in Bundesliga (73 points from 34 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th (40 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	73
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05?: The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 48%, against 22% for a draw and 30% for FSV Mainz 05.
Where and when is Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 played?: Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on January 9, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.