Match

Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SVBayer Leverkusen

The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bayer Leverkusen wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,445 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 228-point Elo edge (2,280 vs 2,051).

22%22%56%
Hamburger SV winDrawBayer Leverkusen win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Hamburger SV

3-4-2-1
  1. 9T. Moffi
  1. 3D. Møller Wolfe
  2. 5M. Adeline
  3. 28M. Muheim
  4. 6A. Sambi Lokonga
  5. 37L. Lemke
  6. 11A. Grønbæk
  1. 17W. Omari
  2. 43S. Nandja
  3. 33S. Bornauw
  1. 1Daniel Heuer Fernandes

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
  1. 14P. Schick
  1. 24Aleix García
  2. 6E. Fernández
  3. 30I. Maza
  4. 9Afonso Moreira
  5. 17Lucas Vázquez
  1. 2F. Medina
  2. 12E. Tapsoba
  3. 3Miguel Gutiérrez
  4. 4J. Quansah
  1. 1M. Flekken

Computed on November 4, 2026 at 08:28 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Bayer Leverkusen have 10, 1 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(away)1-3Bundesliga
Oct 27, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-3DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026SC Paderborn 07(away)0-1Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 20261899 Hoffenheim(away)3-2Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)2-4Bundesliga
Oct 28, 20261. FC Nürnberg(home)5-2DFB Pokal
Oct 25, 20261899 Hoffenheim(away)0-3Bundesliga
Oct 22, 2026OFI(away)2-0UEFA Europa League
Oct 18, 2026SC Freiburg(home)2-1Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Hamburger SV win, 1 draw, 4 Bayer Leverkusen wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 16, 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Mar 4, 2026Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Feb 17, 2018Hamburger SV 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Sep 24, 2017Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Feb 3, 2017Hamburger SV 1-0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Sep 10, 2016Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Hamburger SVBundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV on May 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Bayer Leverkusen score 2.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV1.32.038/1511/15
Bayer Leverkusen2.51.468/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hamburger SV sit 15th in Bundesliga (9 points from 8 matches) and Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th (13 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
6Bayer Leverkusen8413181613
15Hamburger SV83057199

A question about Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen is played on January 9, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen

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