Where and when is Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen played?

Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen is played on January 9, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV

Bayer Leverkusen

The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 211-point Elo edge (2,282 vs 2,071).

Hamburger SV win24 %

Draw22 %

Bayer Leverkusen win54 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Bayer Leverkusen have 10, 1 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Verl(away)	3-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

Bayer Leverkusen
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	SV Wehen(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Newcastle(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 12, 2026	Nottingham Forest(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Sevilla(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Hamburger SV win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Bayer Leverkusen win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 16, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Mar 4, 2026	Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Feb 17, 2018	Hamburger SV 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Sep 24, 2017	Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Feb 3, 2017	Hamburger SV 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Sep 10, 2016	Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV on May 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Bayer Leverkusen score 2.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV	1.6	1.8	1	13/15	12/15
Bayer Leverkusen	2.4	1.0	5	9/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hamburger SV sit 13th in Bundesliga (38 points from 34 matches) and Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th (59 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	59
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?: The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen played?: Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen is played on January 9, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.