Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 24Kick-off on August 24, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Botafogo the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Atletico Paranaense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Botafogo (1,951) and Atletico Paranaense (1,987).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botafogo have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Atletico Paranaense have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 1-6 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Santos(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Botafogo win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Atletico Paranaense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense 4-1 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Jun 19, 2024 | Botafogo 1-1 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Botafogo 1-1 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Jun 3, 2023 | Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Jun 1, 2023 | Botafogo 1-0 Atletico Paranaense | Copa Do Brasil |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo on Mar 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botafogo score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Paranaense score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Atletico Paranaense | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botafogo sit 11th in Serie A (30 points from 22 matches) and Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd (41 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 30 |
Who is out?
9 reported absence(s) for this match.
- Arthur CabralBotafogoOut(Red Card)
- J. BarreraBotafogoDoubtful(Injury)
- Kaio PantaleãoBotafogoOut(Knee Injury)
- PaulinhoBotafogoOut(Injury)
- ClaudinhoAtletico ParanaenseOut(Muscle Injury)
- C. TeránAtletico ParanaenseOut(Injury)
- DuduAtletico ParanaenseDoubtful(Injury)
- Leo DerikAtletico ParanaenseOut(Inactive)
- L. EsquivelAtletico ParanaenseOut(Ankle Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
- The Footlab model makes Botafogo the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Atletico Paranaense.
- Where and when is Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense played?
- Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense is played on August 24, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nilton Santos, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.