Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Hristo Botev, Vratsa
The Footlab model makes Botev Vratsa the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Botev Vratsa (1,739) and Spartak Varna (1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botev Vratsa have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Spartak Varna have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 0-5 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-6 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Botev Vratsa win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Spartak Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Botev Vratsa 2-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Botev Vratsa 2-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Spartak Varna 1-1 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Spartak Varna 1-0 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Botev Vratsa 1-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| May 13, 2023 | Botev Vratsa 1-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botev Vratsa score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Varna score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Spartak Varna | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botev Vratsa sit 14th in First League (1 points from 5 matches) and Spartak Varna sit 7th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 14 | Botev Vratsa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Botev Vratsa the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna played?
- Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Hristo Botev, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.