Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dragalevtsi, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Septemvri Sofia the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Dunav Ruse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Septemvri Sofia (1,684) and Dunav Ruse (1,731).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Sofia have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Dunav Ruse have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 1-3 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 0-2 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Septemvri Sofia win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Dunav Ruse win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2024 | Septemvri Sofia 1-2 Dunav Ruse | Second League |
| Oct 2, 2023 | Dunav Ruse 1-1 Septemvri Sofia | Second League |
| Apr 26, 2019 | Septemvri Sofia 1-1 Dunav Ruse | First League |
| Apr 8, 2019 | Dunav Ruse 2-2 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Dec 9, 2018 | Septemvri Sofia 2-1 Dunav Ruse | First League |
| Aug 24, 2018 | Dunav Ruse 2-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse on Apr 22, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Septemvri Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Dunav Ruse score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Dunav Ruse | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Septemvri Sofia sit 8th in First League (7 points from 6 matches) and Dunav Ruse sit 12th (3 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 12 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
- The Footlab model makes Septemvri Sofia the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Dunav Ruse.
- Where and when is Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse played?
- Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dragalevtsi, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.