Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Lokomotiv Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Lokomotiv Sofia (1,721) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv (1,805).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Sofia have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 1-3 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-3 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Lokomotiv Sofia win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 2-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Lokomotiv Sofia | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 0-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Sofia sit 13th in First League (2 points from 5 matches) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Lokomotiv Sofia.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv played?
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.