Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ticha, Dolni chiflik
The Footlab model makes Levski Sofia the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Cherno More Varna. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?
Levski Sofia starts as the favourite with a 266-point Elo edge (2,050 vs 1,784).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cherno More Varna have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Levski Sofia have 11, 4 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 6-0 | First League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cherno More Varna win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Levski Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Levski Sofia 2-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 1-3 Levski Sofia | First League |
| May 26, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 0-0 Levski Sofia | First League |
| May 10, 2025 | Levski Sofia 2-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Levski Sofia 1-2 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 1-0 Levski Sofia | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Levski Sofia vs Cherno More Varna on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Levski Sofia score 2.5 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Levski Sofia | 2.5 | 0.4 | 10 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cherno More Varna sit 10th in First League (4 points from 6 matches) and Levski Sofia sit 2nd (15 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Levski Sofia the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Cherno More Varna.
- Where and when is Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia played?
- Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ticha, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.