Bournemouth vs Sunderland: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
The Footlab AI model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bournemouth wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Bournemouth starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (2,205 vs 2,098).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1- 9Evanilson
- 16M. Tavernier
- 37Rayan
- 12T. Adams
- 10R. Christie
- 7D. Brooks
- 5J. Hill
- 14António Silva
- 15A. Smith
- 3A. Truffert
- 1Đ. Petrović
Sunderland
4-2-3-1- 18W. Isidor
- 34G. Xhaka
- 28E. Le Fée
- 27N. Sadiki
- 10N. Angulo
- 12T. Meunier
- 20N. Mukiele
- 4K. Danso
- 17Reinildo
- 32T. Hume
- 22R. Roefs
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bournemouth have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Sunderland have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-5 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 3-5 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bournemouth wins, 2 draws, 2 Sunderland wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Sunderland 3-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Apr 29, 2017 | Sunderland 0-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Nov 5, 2016 | Bournemouth 1-2 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Jan 23, 2016 | Sunderland 1-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2015 | Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Bournemouth vs Sunderland on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bournemouth score 2.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Sunderland score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
| Sunderland | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bournemouth sit 18th in Premier League (3 points from 6 matches) and Sunderland sit 17th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 3 |
A question about Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Bournemouth vs Sunderland played?
- Bournemouth vs Sunderland is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Vitality Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.