Everton vs Chelsea: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside
The Footlab AI model makes Everton the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Chelsea. The most likely score is 1-1. If Everton wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Everton (2,214) and Chelsea (2,255).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Everton vs Chelsea
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Everton
4-2-3-1- 11T. Barry
- 8K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 37J. Garner
- 45H. Armstrong
- 22B. Johnson
- 10J. Grealish
- 16V. Mykolenko
- 6J. Tarkowski
- 4J. Branthwaite
- 2A. Maitland-Niles
- 1J. Pickford
Chelsea
3-4-2-1- 9João Pedro
- 10C. Palmer
- 17M. Rogers
- 7Pedro Neto
- 45R. Lavia
- 21J. Hato
- 29Pep Chavarría
- 3W. Fofana
- 6L. Colwill
- 5M. Lacroix
- 1E. Martínez
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Everton have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Chelsea have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 6-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 4-3 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Everton wins, 1 draw, 3 Chelsea wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Everton 3-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Chelsea 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Chelsea 1-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Everton 0-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Chelsea 6-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Everton 2-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Everton score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Chelsea score 2.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Chelsea | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Everton sit 7th in Premier League (9 points from 5 matches) and Chelsea sit 10th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
A question about Everton vs Chelsea?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Everton vs Chelsea?
- The Footlab AI model makes Everton the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Chelsea.
- Where and when is Everton vs Chelsea played?
- Everton vs Chelsea is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Hill Dickinson Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.