Leeds vs Manchester United: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Leeds the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Manchester United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leeds vs Manchester United?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Leeds (2,173) and Manchester United (2,225).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leeds have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Manchester United have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Augsburg(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 4-2 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Leeds win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Manchester United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Manchester United 1-1 Leeds | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Manchester United 1-2 Leeds | Premier League |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Leeds 1-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Manchester United 0-0 Leeds | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 12, 2023 | Manchester United 2-0 Leeds | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Leeds 0-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Manchester United vs Leeds on Aug 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester United score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Manchester United | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leeds sit 8th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Manchester United sit 16th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leeds vs Manchester United?
- The Footlab model makes Leeds the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Manchester United.
- Where and when is Leeds vs Manchester United played?
- Leeds vs Manchester United is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Elland Road, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.