Brighton vs Bournemouth: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 6, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
The Footlab AI model makes Brighton the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Bournemouth. The most likely score is 1-1. If Brighton wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brighton vs Bournemouth?
On Elo ratings, Brighton has 2,291 points and Bournemouth 2,208.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Brighton vs Bournemouth
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Brighton
4-2-3-1- 19C. Kostoulas
- 13P. Groß
- 25D. Gómez
- 29M. De Cuyper
- 26Y. Ayari
- 14José María Andrés Baixauli
- 21O. Boscagli
- 44L. Vušković
- 24F. Kadıoğlu
- 4P. Struijk
- 1B. Verbruggen
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1- 9Evanilson
- 16M. Tavernier
- 37Rayan
- 12T. Adams
- 10R. Christie
- 7D. Brooks
- 5J. Hill
- 14António Silva
- 15A. Smith
- 3A. Truffert
- 1Đ. Petrović
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 09:08 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brighton have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Bournemouth have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-5 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Brighton wins, 1 draw, 2 Bournemouth wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | Brighton 1-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Bournemouth 2-1 Brighton | Premier League |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Brighton 2-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Bournemouth 1-2 Brighton | Premier League |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Bournemouth 3-0 Brighton | Premier League |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Brighton 3-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Brighton vs Bournemouth on Jan 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Brighton score 2.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bournemouth score 2.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 2.4 | 0.9 | 9 | 4/15 | 10/15 |
| Bournemouth | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Brighton sit 3rd in Premier League (13 points from 6 matches) and Bournemouth sit 18th (3 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 13 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 3 |
A question about Brighton vs Bournemouth?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brighton vs Bournemouth?
- The Footlab AI model makes Brighton the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Bournemouth.
- Where and when is Brighton vs Bournemouth played?
- Brighton vs Bournemouth is played on January 6, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at The American Express Community Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.