Everton vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 6, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside
The Footlab AI model makes Everton the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Everton wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Everton vs Aston Villa?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Everton (2,160) and Aston Villa (2,252).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Everton vs Aston Villa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Everton
4-2-3-1- 11T. Barry
- 8K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 37J. Garner
- 45H. Armstrong
- 22B. Johnson
- 10J. Grealish
- 6J. Tarkowski
- 4J. Branthwaite
- 2A. Maitland-Niles
- 5M. Keane
- 1J. Pickford
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 7J. McGinn
- 10E. Buendía
- 44J. Manzambi
- 35João Gomes
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 5T. Mings
- 2M. Cash
- 13M. Ruggeri
- 1Z. Suzuki
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Everton have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Aston Villa have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 3-1 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Everton wins, 2 draws, 2 Aston Villa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Aston Villa 0-1 Everton | Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Everton 0-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Jan 15, 2025 | Everton 0-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Aston Villa 3-2 Everton | Premier League |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Everton 0-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2023 | Aston Villa 1-2 Everton | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Everton on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Everton score 1.6 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 1.6 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Everton sit 5th in Premier League (10 points from 6 matches) and Aston Villa sit 16th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
A question about Everton vs Aston Villa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Everton vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Everton the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Everton vs Aston Villa played?
- Everton vs Aston Villa is played on January 6, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Hill Dickinson Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.