Manchester United vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 6, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Old Trafford, Manchester
The Footlab model makes Manchester United the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester United vs Newcastle?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Manchester United (2,224) and Newcastle (2,151).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester United have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Newcastle have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Manchester United win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Newcastle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Newcastle 2-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Manchester United 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Newcastle 4-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 30, 2024 | Manchester United 0-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
| May 15, 2024 | Manchester United 3-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Newcastle 1-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle vs Manchester United on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester United score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester United sit 16th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Newcastle sit 11th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester United vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab model makes Manchester United the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Manchester United vs Newcastle played?
- Manchester United vs Newcastle is played on January 6, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Old Trafford, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.