Manchester United vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 6, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Old Trafford, Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchester United wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,509 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester United vs Newcastle?
On Elo ratings, Manchester United has 2,150 points and Newcastle 2,111.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Manchester United vs Newcastle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Manchester United
4-2-3-1- 19B. Mbeumo
- 16A. Diallo
- 20C. Baleba
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 17Andrey Santos
- 10Matheus Cunha
- 5H. Maguire
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 15L. Yoro
- 6Lisandro Martínez
- 1S. Lammens
Newcastle
4-2-3-1- 10W. Osula
- 11H. Barnes
- 28J. Willock
- 6Nico González
- 7Joelinton
- 23J. Murphy
- 3L. Hall
- 37A. Dedić
- 5F. Schär
- 33D. Burn
- 21L. Horníček
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 10:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester United have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Newcastle have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Como(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Everton(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Everton(away) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Crystal Palace(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Manchester United wins, 0 draws, 4 Newcastle wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Newcastle 2-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Manchester United 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Newcastle 4-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 30, 2024 | Manchester United 0-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
| May 15, 2024 | Manchester United 3-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Newcastle 1-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle vs Manchester United on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester United score 1.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester United sit 17th in Premier League (7 points from 9 matches) and Newcastle sit 13th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Newcastle | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 11 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 7 |
A question about Manchester United vs Newcastle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester United vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Manchester United vs Newcastle played?
- Manchester United vs Newcastle is played on January 6, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Old Trafford, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.