Match

Brighton vs Manchester City: prediction and stats

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

BrightonManchester City

The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Brighton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchester City wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,523 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Brighton vs Manchester City?

A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Brighton (2,261) and Manchester City (2,357).

36%26%38%
Brighton winDrawManchester City win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Brighton vs Manchester City

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Brighton

4-2-3-1
  1. 19C. Kostoulas
  1. 13P. Groß
  2. 26Y. Ayari
  3. 25D. Gómez
  4. 29M. De Cuyper
  5. 14José María Andrés Baixauli
  1. 21O. Boscagli
  2. 44L. Vušković
  3. 5L. Dunk
  4. 20Costinha
  1. 1B. Verbruggen

Manchester City

4-2-3-1
  1. 9E. Haaland
  1. 7I. Ndiaye
  2. 17E. Fernández
  3. 5E. Anderson
  4. 11J. Doku
  5. 10R. Cherki
  1. 45A. Khusanov
  2. 3Rúben Dias
  3. 27Matheus Nunes
  4. 6M. Guéhi
  1. 1G. Donnarumma

Computed on November 4, 2026 at 11:54 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brighton have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Manchester City have 11, 1 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Brighton
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026Manchester City(away)1-0Premier League
Oct 28, 2026Manchester City(away)2-2League Cup
Oct 25, 2026Liverpool(away)0-2Premier League
Oct 22, 2026FK Jablonec(away)0-0UEFA Europa Conference League
Oct 18, 2026Crystal Palace(home)5-0Premier League
Manchester City
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 4, 2026RB Leipzig(away)3-2UEFA Champions League
Oct 31, 2026Brighton(home)0-1Premier League
Oct 28, 2026Brighton(home)2-2League Cup
Oct 24, 2026Aston Villa(away)1-2Premier League
Oct 20, 2026AEK Athens FC(home)5-1UEFA Champions League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Brighton wins, 3 draws, 0 Manchester City wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026Manchester City 0-1 BrightonPremier League
Oct 28, 2026Manchester City 2-2 BrightonLeague Cup
Jan 7, 2026Manchester City 1-1 BrightonPremier League
Aug 31, 2025Brighton 2-1 Manchester CityPremier League
Mar 15, 2025Manchester City 2-2 BrightonPremier League
Nov 9, 2024Brighton 2-1 Manchester CityPremier League

Last archived meeting: Manchester City vs Brighton on Oct 31, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Brighton score 2.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester City score 2.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Brighton2.50.7104/159/15
Manchester City2.61.359/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Brighton sit 3rd in Premier League (19 points from 9 matches) and Manchester City sit 2nd (21 points from 9 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Manchester City9702201021
3Brighton961224719

A question about Brighton vs Manchester City?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Brighton vs Manchester City?
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Brighton.
Where and when is Brighton vs Manchester City played?
Brighton vs Manchester City is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The American Express Community Stadium, in the Premier League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Brighton and Manchester City

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