Arsenal vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Emirates Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Newcastle?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 232-point Elo edge (2,377 vs 2,146).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Newcastle have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Coventry(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 3-0 | Community Shield |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 2-3 | Emirates Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Arsenal win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Newcastle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Newcastle 1-2 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Arsenal 3-2 Newcastle | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 18, 2025 | Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Newcastle 2-0 Arsenal | League Cup |
| Jan 7, 2025 | Arsenal 0-2 Newcastle | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 2nd in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Newcastle sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Newcastle played?
- Arsenal vs Newcastle is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Emirates Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.