Arsenal vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Emirates Stadium, London
The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Newcastle?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 248-point Elo edge (2,419 vs 2,171).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arsenal vs Newcastle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arsenal
4-2-3-1- 29K. Havertz
- 41D. Rice
- 49M. Lewis-Skelly
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 7B. Saka
- 20N. Madueke
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 15E. Konsa
- 33R. Calafiori
- 4B. White
- 1David Raya
Newcastle
4-2-3-1- 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
- 11H. Barnes
- 9Y. Wissa
- 23J. Murphy
- 28J. Willock
- 6Nico González
- 4S. Botman
- 3L. Hall
- 12M. Thiaw
- 67L. Miley
- 21L. Horníček
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:21 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Newcastle have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lille(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 4-2 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Arsenal wins, 0 draws, 2 Newcastle wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Newcastle 1-2 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Arsenal 3-2 Newcastle | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 18, 2025 | Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Newcastle 2-0 Arsenal | League Cup |
| Jan 7, 2025 | Arsenal 0-2 Newcastle | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 2nd in Premier League (15 points from 6 matches) and Newcastle sit 11th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
A question about Arsenal vs Newcastle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Newcastle played?
- Arsenal vs Newcastle is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Emirates Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.