Leeds vs Chelsea: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
The Footlab AI model makes Leeds the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Chelsea. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leeds wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leeds vs Chelsea?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Leeds (2,235) and Chelsea (2,247).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leeds vs Chelsea
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leeds
3-4-2-1- 9D. Calvert-Lewin
- 4E. Ampadu
- 2J. Bogle
- 18A. Stach
- 19N. Okafor
- 22A. Tanaka
- 3G. Gudmundsson
- 5T. Muharemović
- 24J. Justin
- 30N. Elvedi
- 1J. Trafford
Chelsea
3-4-3- 17M. Rogers
- 10C. Palmer
- 9João Pedro
- 7Pedro Neto
- 29Pep Chavarría
- 14J. Henderson
- 25M. Caicedo
- 6L. Colwill
- 5M. Lacroix
- 34Joshua Kofi Acheampong
- 1E. Martínez
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:33 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leeds have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Chelsea have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 3-6 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 6-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Leeds win, 1 draw, 4 Chelsea wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea 6-3 Leeds | League Cup |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Chelsea 1-0 Leeds | FA Cup |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Chelsea 2-2 Leeds | Premier League |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Leeds 3-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Feb 28, 2024 | Chelsea 3-2 Leeds | FA Cup |
| Mar 4, 2023 | Chelsea 1-0 Leeds | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Chelsea score 2.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Chelsea | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leeds sit 7th in Premier League (9 points from 6 matches) and Chelsea sit 6th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
A question about Leeds vs Chelsea?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leeds vs Chelsea?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leeds the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Chelsea.
- Where and when is Leeds vs Chelsea played?
- Leeds vs Chelsea is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Elland Road, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.