Bristol City vs Stoke City: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 24Kick-off on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
The Footlab model makes Bristol City the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bristol City vs Stoke City?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Bristol City (1,838) and Stoke City (1,793).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bristol City have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Stoke City have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Southampton(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bristol City win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Stoke City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Bristol City 2-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Stoke City 5-1 Bristol City | Championship |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Bristol City 2-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Stoke City 2-2 Bristol City | Championship |
| May 4, 2024 | Stoke City 4-0 Bristol City | Championship |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Bristol City 2-3 Stoke City | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Bristol City vs Stoke City on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bristol City score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Stoke City score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Stoke City | 0.9 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bristol City sit 19th in Championship (1 points from 2 matches) and Stoke City sit 21st (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bristol City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 21 | Stoke City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bristol City vs Stoke City?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol City the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Bristol City vs Stoke City played?
- Bristol City vs Stoke City is played on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Ashton Gate Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.