Swindon Town vs Grimsby: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The County Ground, Swindon, Wiltshire
The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Swindon Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Grimsby?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Swindon Town (1,789) and Grimsby (1,834).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swindon Town have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Grimsby have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Grimsby Borough(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Swindon Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Grimsby win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Grimsby 4-0 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Swindon Town 2-2 Grimsby | League Two |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Grimsby 0-4 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Swindon Town 3-1 Grimsby | League Two |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Grimsby 2-0 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Swindon Town 2-1 Grimsby | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Grimsby vs Swindon Town on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Grimsby score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Grimsby | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swindon Town sit 7th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Grimsby sit 8th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Swindon Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Grimsby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swindon Town vs Grimsby?
- The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Swindon Town.
- Where and when is Swindon Town vs Grimsby played?
- Swindon Town vs Grimsby is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The County Ground, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.