Where and when is Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław played?

Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław is played on November 7, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the III Liga - Group 4.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław: prediction and stats

III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 16Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)

Busko-Zdroj

Jarosław

The Footlab model makes Busko-Zdroj the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Jarosław. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław?

A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Busko-Zdroj (1,717) and Jarosław (1,749).

Busko-Zdroj win41 %

Draw25 %

Jarosław win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 8 matches in all competitions, Busko-Zdroj have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Jarosław have 7, 1 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Busko-Zdroj
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Star Starachowice(away)	1-1	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 19, 2026	Podlasie Biała Podlaska(away)	1-2	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 15, 2026	Siarka Tarnobrzeg(home)	1-4	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 8, 2026	KS Wieczysta Krakow II(away)	3-1	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 2, 2026	Wisłoka Dębica(home)	1-1	III Liga - Group 4

Jarosław
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Podlasie Biała Podlaska(home)	2-0	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 19, 2026	Siarka Tarnobrzeg(away)	3-1	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 15, 2026	KS Wieczysta Krakow II(home)	1-2	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 8, 2026	Wisłoka Dębica(away)	1-3	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 1, 2026	Sokół Kolb.(home)	2-2	III Liga - Group 4

How many goals should we expect?

Busko-Zdroj score 1.6 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 8; Jarosław score 2.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Busko-Zdroj	1.6	2.1	0	6/8	6/8
Jarosław	2.2	1.7	1	11/13	11/13

Over the last 8 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Busko-Zdroj sit 14th in III Liga - Group 4 (5 points from 5 matches) and Jarosław sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Jarosław	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
14	Busko-Zdroj	5	1	2	2	7	9	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław?: The Footlab model makes Busko-Zdroj the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Jarosław.
Where and when is Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław played?: Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław is played on November 7, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the III Liga - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.