Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido played?

Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 10Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd

Caerau (Ely)

Afan Lido

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 73%, against 15% for a draw and 12% for Afan Lido. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido?

Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,654 vs 1,496).

Caerau (Ely) win73 %

Draw15 %

Afan Lido win12 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Afan Lido have 8, 0 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

Afan Lido
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Pontardawe Town(home)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	1-3	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Llantwit Major(home)	5-0	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Aberystwyth Town(home)	2-5	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Cardiff Draconians(away)	1-4	FAW Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Caerau (Ely) win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Afan Lido win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 7, 2026	Caerau (Ely) 4-1 Afan Lido	FAW Championship
Oct 31, 2025	Afan Lido 3-2 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Nov 22, 2024	Caerau (Ely) 3-0 Afan Lido	FAW Championship
Sep 7, 2024	Afan Lido 2-2 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Apr 1, 2024	Caerau (Ely) 3-2 Afan Lido	FAW Championship
Oct 17, 2023	Caerau (Ely) 4-1 Afan Lido	Welsh Cup

Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido on Mar 7, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Afan Lido score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15
Afan Lido	1.7	1.7	5	7/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Caerau (Ely) sit 11th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Afan Lido sit 8th (6 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
8	Afan Lido	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 73%, against 15% for a draw and 12% for Afan Lido.
Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido played?: Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.