Swansea University vs Caerphilly Athletic: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Sketty Lane, Swansea
The Footlab model makes Swansea University the favourite at 76%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swansea University vs Caerphilly Athletic?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Swansea University (1,579) and Caerphilly Athletic (1,507).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swansea University have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Caerphilly Athletic have 2, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(away) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Trefelin(home) | 1-6 | Welsh Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Caldicot Town(home) | 1-3 | Welsh Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Swansea University score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Caerphilly Athletic score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea University | 1.9 | 1.6 | 6 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1 | 5/8 | 6/8 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swansea University sit 1st in FAW Championship (12 points from 4 matches) and Caerphilly Athletic sit 12th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swansea University vs Caerphilly Athletic?
- The Footlab model makes Swansea University the favourite at 76%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Caerphilly Athletic.
- Where and when is Swansea University vs Caerphilly Athletic played?
- Swansea University vs Caerphilly Athletic is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Sketty Lane, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.