Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)USW Sports Park, Treforest, Pontypridd
The Footlab model makes Pontypridd Town the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Aberystwyth Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Pontypridd Town (1,599) and Aberystwyth Town (1,577).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontypridd Town have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Aberystwyth Town have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 5-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Cwmbran Celtic(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Pontypridd Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Aberystwyth Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2025 | Pontypridd Town 0-1 Aberystwyth Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Aberystwyth Town 0-0 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Aberystwyth Town 3-0 Pontypridd Town | Premier League |
| Apr 9, 2024 | Pontypridd Town 0-0 Aberystwyth Town | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2023 | Pontypridd Town 2-0 Aberystwyth Town | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2023 | Aberystwyth Town 0-1 Pontypridd Town | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town on Dec 26, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Pontypridd Town score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Aberystwyth Town score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontypridd Town | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Aberystwyth Town | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pontypridd Town sit 2nd in FAW Championship (12 points from 4 matches) and Aberystwyth Town sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town?
- The Footlab model makes Pontypridd Town the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Aberystwyth Town.
- Where and when is Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town played?
- Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at USW Sports Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.