Treowen Stars vs Ynyshir Albions: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Ynyshir Albions. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Treowen Stars vs Ynyshir Albions?
Treowen Stars starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,559 vs 1,428).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Treowen Stars have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Ynyshir Albions have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(away) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Treowen Stars win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Ynyshir Albions win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions 1-1 Treowen Stars | FAW Championship |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Treowen Stars 3-0 Ynyshir Albions | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Ynyshir Albions vs Treowen Stars on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Treowen Stars score 2.0 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ynyshir Albions score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treowen Stars | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Ynyshir Albions | 1.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Treowen Stars sit 3rd in FAW Championship (9 points from 4 matches) and Ynyshir Albions sit 9th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 9 |
| 9 | Ynyshir Albions | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Treowen Stars vs Ynyshir Albions?
- The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Ynyshir Albions.
- Where and when is Treowen Stars vs Ynyshir Albions played?
- Treowen Stars vs Ynyshir Albions is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.